In what is exactly a decade on from the season they historically won the Premier League, Leicester City find themselves in something of a rut.
A far cry from even the side that won the 2021 FA Cup under Brendan Rodgers, stunning Chelsea 1-0 at Wembley four years ago, the Midlands outfit are now fighting it out in the Championship and are facing an impending possibility of a nine-point deduction, which could all but derail their promotion hopes.
For a club once synonymous with improbable success stories and a staple of Premier League free bets promotions, the narrative has shifted dramatically.
At the time of writing, Leicester have won two of their last three games, including an emphatic 3-1 home victory over Ipswich Town. That run has lifted them to within three points of the play-off places, keeping hope alive in a fiercely congested Championship table.
But the margins are unforgiving. A nine-point penalty would see the Foxes plunge to 20th, suddenly looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone rather than up towards the top six. That stark contrast underlines just how brutal the second tier can be.
From contenders to survivors
The Championship is often described as one of the most competitive leagues in Europe, and Leicester’s predicament is a textbook example. A handful of results can transform a season, for better or worse. While Marti Cifuentes has begun to impose a degree of structure and resilience on his side, any momentum built on the pitch risks being wiped out by events off it.
A nine-point deduction would not simply be a numerical setback; it would fundamentally change Leicester’s objectives. Instead of fine-tuning a squad for a promotion push, the priority would shift to damage limitation and survival. Confidence, already fragile after successive seasons of turbulence, would take another hit, both in the dressing room and among supporters.
Psychological and tactical impact
Points deductions carry a psychological weight that often exceeds the arithmetic. Players are acutely aware when they are chasing the table rather than climbing it. A drop to 20th would increase pressure on every fixture, turning routine midweek games into high-stakes encounters. That can lead to cautious tactics, tighter margins, and a reluctance to take risks — hardly ideal for a team built to dominate possession and impose itself.
For Cifuentes, the challenge would be striking a balance between pragmatism and ambition. Leicester still possess one of the stronger squads in the division on paper, but the loss of points would narrow the margin for error. Injuries, suspensions, or a brief loss of form could quickly drag them into a relegation scrap, something unthinkable for a club of their stature even a few years ago.
Financial constraints are tightening the screws
Any hopes of responding to a deduction by strengthening in the transfer market appear slim. Leicester’s financial headroom is limited, and the scope for significant January recruitment looks minimal. Player sales are also unlikely to generate substantial funds without weakening the squad further, particularly given the current wage structures and a lack of obvious high-value assets that can be easily sold.
This financial reality compounds the sporting risk. Promotion, already a difficult task, becomes exponentially harder when combined with points penalties and restricted squad investment. Failure to go up would mean another season in the Championship, with revenues and appeal continuing to decline — a dangerous cycle for a club still carrying Premier League-era costs.
The wider context: a cautionary tale
Leicester’s situation inevitably draws comparisons with other former top-flight clubs who have struggled to stabilise after relegation. The gap between the Premier League and the Championship is not just sporting but financial and structural. Once that gap begins to close in the wrong direction, recovery can be slow and painful.
A nine-point deduction would serve as a stark reminder that past glories offer no protection in the present. 10 years on from lifting the Premier League trophy, Leicester are confronting a reality where survival, not silverware, may define their immediate future.
Is promotion still possible?
Mathematically, promotion would not be impossible even with a nine-point deduction — but it would require near-perfect execution. Leicester would need to sustain form akin to the league’s best sides over several months, while hoping rivals falter. In a division as deep and unpredictable as the Championship, that is a tall order.
More realistically, the focus would shift to ensuring stability, rebuilding trust on and off the pitch, and laying foundations for a more sustainable challenge in future seasons. That may be a bitter pill to swallow for supporters who still remember Champions League nights and Wembley triumphs, but it may also be a necessary step back before Leicester can move forward again.
In short, a nine-point deduction would not just dent Leicester City’s promotion hopes — it would redefine their season entirely.